全球暖化警報 5年恐升1.5℃

  The United Nations said there’s a two-out-ofthree chance that the world will temporarily hit a key warming limit between now and 2027.
  But climate scientists said what’s likely to happen in the next five years isn’t the same as failing the global goal. They believe it likely would only be a fast and temporary breach of the 1.5°C threshold following a burst of heat from El Niño. “A single year doesn’t really mean anything. We don’t expect the longer-term average to pass 1.5°C until the early-to-mid 2030s,” said an expert. Scientists typically use 30-year averages.
  However, the report by the World Meteorological Organization is sounding an alarm that we will temporarily breach the 1.5°C level with increasing frequency. The 2015 Paris climate agreement sets 1.5°C as a limit in atmospheric warming.
  The odds of a single year hitting that threshold in five years is 66%. That’s an increase from 48% last year, 40% the year before, 20% in 2020 and 10% about a decade ago.

 但氣候科學家表示,未來五年可能發生的狀況,並不代表對抗全球暖化的目標失敗。他們認為,這可能只是聖嬰現象熱浪爆發後,快速而暫時的超過攝氏1. 5 度的門檻。一位專家說:「一年真的不代表什麼。我們預計,在2030年代初中期之前,升溫幅度的長期平均值不會超過攝氏1.5 度。」科學家通常採用三十年的平均溫度。
 然而,世界氣象組織的最新報告確實敲響了警鐘,顯示我們地球升溫幅度將愈來愈頻繁的暫時突破攝氏1.5 度。2015 年的巴黎氣候協定,將攝氏1.5 度設定為地球暖化的上限。
 最新報告顯示,五年內突破該門檻的年概率為66%,高於去年預估的48%概率、前年的40%概率、2020 年的20%概率,乃至十年前的10%概率。