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第269期
(2018/01/04出刊)
氣候變遷導致難民激增 本世紀前歐洲每年將湧入百萬人

 In the years to come, climate change could push more people into the European Union. That's because people who live in poor countries will look for shelter in richer countries where the climate is temperate. For a long time, experts have been warning us about this—that rising temperature and extreme weather could do this.
 In a recent study published in the journal Science, researchers looked at asylum applications (requests for help) in the EU between 2000 and 2014 from 103 countries around the world. "We find a statistically significant relationship between fluctuations in asylum applications and weather anomalies," said the study. It's the first study that draws a link between climate change and the movement of people from country to country all over the world.
 The study concludes that the number of asylumseekers to the EU could rise by more than a quarter by 2100 even if global warming slows. However, if emissions of greenhouse gases continue at current rates, asylum request could almost triple to over a million a year by the end of the century.

 氣候變遷帶來的種種壓力,在未來幾年可能會 迫使更多移民湧入歐盟國家;因為窮國人民將到 氣候溫和的有錢國家尋求庇護。專家很早就提出 警告,不斷攀高的氣溫與極端氣候可能會導致這 種現象。
 根據國際期刊《科學》刊載的最新研究,研究 員分析了2000 年到2014 年期間向歐盟申請庇護 (請求協助)的103 國民眾,「結果我們發現, 申請庇護人數的消長與氣候異常現象,兩者之間 出現統計學上的顯著關係。」這也是第一個在氣 候變遷和國際移民間找到關聯性的跨全球研究。
 這項研究的結論是:即使全球暖化的現象趨緩 ,申請歐盟國家庇護的人數在2100 年左右會增 加四分之一以上。不過,溫室氣體的排放量若維 持目前的速率,在2100 年前,每年申請庇護的 人數可能會突破100 萬,將近目前的3 倍。